Portfolio

Portfolio

The Effects of Changes in Real Exchange Rate on Import, Export and Gross National Product
The Ages Osman Peker
Summary:

The exchange rate is the value of one currency’s currency relative to the currency of another. Real exchange rate is an indication of the competitiveness of the country. On the other hand, the effects of various internal and external shocks cause the real build to deviate from the long-term value. Especially in times of crisis, these deviations reach serious dimensions. The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of the transition on the VAR method based on the price of exchange rate volatility in Turkey. According to empirical evidence, exchange rate shocks explain 65% of the estimated error variance of prices. Therefore, exchange rate variability is the most important factor in Labor’s first national inflation Real Effective Exchange Rate impact on exports in order to bring clarification on these issues for Turkey were investigated. Then, with the change of the exchange rate system in the period of February 2001 by structural change analysis method, the effect of export on this was examined. The people who are in charge of economic policy and the exporters and importers usually want to change their exchange rates and adjust the terms to their own advantage.
According to the Samuelson-Balassa hypothesis, the long-term change in the real exchange rate is due to the relative price differences of the non-traded sectors of the countries. Relative prices of goods not subject to trade can also be explained on the basis of labor productivity differences. Therefore, the change in the real rates is due to the difference in efficiency between countries.
In this study, short- and long-term relationships between the real effective exchange rate volatility trade balance with Turkey, 2003: I-2008: IV period was investigated using data. The finding that Marshall-Lerner was not empirically supported by the long-term devaluation to improve the trade balance was obtained. The short-term effects on the trade balance of the real effective exchange rate variability are not significant.

Keywords: Import, Export, Turkey’s economy, inflation, Turkey, Trade Balance: Marshall-Lerner condition is, real exchange rate, trade balance, unit roots, structural breaks and causality.

My Scientific Research:
The effects of the Customs Union, Turkey’s economy
Studying in Turkey, according to the products we exported to the EU from the garment industry
Removal of quotas in the EU textile sector and its economic consequences
Investigating the contribution of the EU pioneering Turkish sectors to the country’s economy
Distribution of EU animal products exports by other sectors

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